What are Cisco’s VNI research predictions for Wi-Fi?

Last week, Cisco released their latest update of the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2014-2019. We have reviewed their report and picked out their main predictions for Wi-Fi.

The future of Wi-Fi is brighter than ever…

  1. Global Offload Traffic
    Within the Cisco VNI forecast, Wi-Fi and small cells remain poised to become the major target for mobile data offload. Whilst this is already true in some countries (e.g. at the Wi-Fi Global Congress, it was already quoted that 70% of the US mobile traffic is over Wi-Fi), the prediction is that this will become a global trend.

    1. “More traffic will be offloaded from cellular networks (onto Wi-Fi) than remains on cellular networks by 2016.”
    2. “By 2019, 54% of the global traffic will be offloaded, whilst 46% of the traffic will remain on mobile”
  2. 4G vs. Wi-Fi traffic
    One of the ongoing discussions remains the impact of 4G/LTE on Wi-Fi usage. Cisco predicts the following: Wi-Fi offload will be higher on 4G networks than on lower-speed networks, both now and in the future. The amount of traffic offloaded from 4G was 44 percent at the end of 2014, and it will be 57 percent by 2019.

    1. “Some have speculated that Wi-Fi offload will be less relevant after 4G networks are in place because of the faster speeds and more abundant bandwidth. However, 4G networks will attract high-usage devices such as advanced smartphones and tablets, and it appears that 4G plans will be subject to data caps similar to 3G plans”
  3. Identifying a Potential Mobile App “Wildcard” – Voice-over-Wi-Fi
    In the latest weeks, the press has been overwhelmed with different announcements from operators and OTT players on their launches of Voice-over-Wi-Fi (VoWI-Fi) services. Cisco shows in their analysis an interesting take on the future of VoWi-Fi. Key points include the prediction that VoWi-Fi will surpass voice over LTE (VoLTE) by 2018 in terms of minutes of use. By 2019, VoWi-Fi will have 53% of mobile IP voice, up from less than 0.1% in 2014.
    Moreover, because VoWi-Fi can also be delivered over non-SIM devices, coverage and usage would be much larger relative to VoLTE. By 2019, Wi-Fi will be able to connect nearly 3.5 times the total of cellular connected tablets and PCs.

    1. “Wi-Fi access has had widespread acceptance by MNOs globally, and it has evolved as a complementary network for traffic offload purposes—offloading from expensive cellular networks on to lower-cost-per-bit Wi-Fi networks. If we draw a parallel from data to voice, we can foresee a similar evolution where VoWi-Fi can evolve as a supplement to cellular voice, extending the coverage of cellular networks through Wi-Fi for voice within the buildings and other areas that have a wider and more optimum access to Wi-Fi hotspots”.
    2. “Voice over Wi-Fi is not a new concept, but the earlier solutions had several limitations that affected the adoption and ultimately the end-user experience. Since then several enhancements in VoWi-Fi that now make it a carrier-grade user-experience have been made. This service can now be offered independent of the hardware capabilities of the device as long as the device has Wi-Fi enabled on it, even non-SIM devices such as Wi-Fi-only tablets can have this service turned on”
    3. “VoWi-Fi not only can extend the reach of MNOs by enabling them to deliver a cost-effective, scalable, and quality solution for delivering in building coverage, where cellular coverage might be sketchy, but also can help them battle the erosion of revenue from over-the-top providers’ (OTTPs’) VoIP offers”

NB: text in quotes denotes text taken directly from the Cisco VNI report and has not been edited by the WBA.