Exploring how peak demand challenges even the fastest mobile networks in the world, and how time-of-day and seasonality affect user experience.
Gulf countries rank highly in the Speedtest Global Index for mobile thanks to their advanced telecom infrastructure and high 5G adoption levels. However, high overall performance hides potential network degradation during peak hours due to increased demand. By applying the peak-hour congestion framework to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., we assess mobile network stability and its seasonal and country-level variations using Speedtest Intelligence® data.
Analyzing a network’s on-peak and off-peak behaviour, instead of just throughput, can reveal its true capacity to handle peak demand
Gulf countries’ telecom markets are high-performing, driven by operators’ investments and supported by sovereign development initiatives. Four Gulf countries (U.A.E., Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain) topped the Speedtest Global Index for mobile in the three months to April 2026. Saudi Arabia ranked among the top 10 globally while Oman ranked in the top 20. Median mobile download speeds on a rolling three-month basis ranged from 166.18 Mbps in Oman to 647.28 Mbps in the U.A.E. in April 2026.
High 5G adoption rates, contiguous allocations of premium mid-band spectrum divided among a small number of operators, extensive use of multi-carrier aggregation, and massive MIMO deployments. Most of these countries have also deployed 5G SA networks, with a few, like Qatar and the U.A.E., already offering 5G Advanced, enabling gigabit speeds. For example, the U.A.E. reached a median of 1.24 Gbps on SA networks in Q4 2025, topping all other countries worldwide.
With these very high download speeds, a speed drop is likely inconsequential to many users. However, the worst-served users, like those on the edge of coverage and those with no 5G phones, would likely be affected. Because spectrum resources and cell capacity are limited and shared among multiple users simultaneously, when demand increases, latency increases as queues build in network buffers. Even when throughput is high, latency, for example, can double, and application responsiveness can be severely degraded. That is why throughput is not the only factor that matters to user experience, but congestion can also increase latency and packet loss (which translates into jitter, a measure of latency variation).
This article uses a congestion framework to factor in the multiple symptoms of network congestion and combine them to produce a single value (on a zero-to-100 scale) that can be used to benchmark network resilience and stability across countries and operators. The framework combines five dimensions of peak-hour degradation:
- Throughput loss (weighted at 30%) measures the drop in median download speed from off-peak to peak.
- Loaded latency inflation (30%) captures how much delay increases during active data transfer, a direct indicator of network queuing that affects video calls, gaming, and web browsing experience.
- Queue growth (20%) measures how the gap between idle and loaded latency widens.
- Jitter inflation (10%) reflects the stability degradation that impairs real-time communication.
- The 10th percentile download drop (P10)(10%) captures how much the worst-served users suffer.
The composite of the five components above, referred to as the ‘congestion rating’, quantifies the degradation in network performance between the off-peak and on-peak windows, set in this analysis as 2-5 AM local time and 7-10 PM local time, respectively. A higher rating indicates greater network deterioration, while a lower value implies higher resilience and stability. Each component is capped at 80% and 100% for the 10th percentile drop to prevent outliers from dominating. More details on the methodology are in a related article.
Gulf countries improved their resilience to traffic load in 2026 compared to the previous year
An analysis of congestion ratings trends in the Gulf over five consecutive quarters (Q1 2025 to Q1 2026) reveals year-on-year improvements across most countries and network indicators, reflecting improved traffic management but possibly also decreased demand, as Q1 2026 saw a regional conflict, which reduced mobility and economic activities, with more time spent indoors. At the same time, some operators had to deal with infrastructure disruption, such as GPS jamming. Ookla data shows that the net effect has been positive for end users’ experience on mobile networks.
Qatar and the U.A.E. had the lowest congestion ratings in most quarters. The U.A.E. is an outlier in that on-peak performance (download speed, loaded latency, and the gaps between idle and loaded latency) was better than off-peak, resulting in one of the lowest congestion ratings in the region (sub-seven). The P10 drop component, that is, the decline in download speed for the bottom 10% of worst-served users, is the only one trending in the opposite direction, increasing year-on-year, which suggests that the performance drop was concentrated in a minority of users/locations. Qatar’s congestion rating was in the 12-16 range throughout 2025, before dropping to around five in Q1 2026. No single component drove this improvement, which suggests that the already-good network performed even better with the low traffic in the last quarter due to the regional conflict.
In Bahrain and Kuwait, the main indicators (download speed drop, latency inflation, and queuing growth) were minimal for the general public, pointing to performance drag caused by the 10th percentile performance. In Kuwait, the P10 download speed dropped by 70% in Q4 2025, indicating that the speed experienced by the bottom decile of users deteriorates faster than what is experienced by most users. Bahrain improved the most, with the congestion rating falling by nearly 12 points year-on-year. All components dropped significantly and consistently across the five quarters, except for P10, which saw more modest improvements. Operators might focus on expanding indoor deployments and increasing site densification within underserved regions to enhance performance and coverage for the bottom decile of users.
Finally, Oman and Saudi Arabia also improved, but more modestly year-on-year, with contrasting gaps. While both countries saw their latency and queuing drop sharply over time, Oman saw its jitter inflation increase, while Saudi Arabia’s median download speed fell between 31% and 52% between on-peak and off-peak periods. The persistent jitter in Oman points to overloaded cells and issues with handover, backhaul, or interference, while in Saudi Arabia, the problem is more likely linked to raw capacity during high demand.
Mobile networks in the Gulf cope better with the evening peak demand than those in Europe
The telecom market in the Gulf enjoys high investment and high EBITDA levels (in the 40-50%+ range). Conversely, the European telecom sector faces severe capital constraints, low average operator margins, and lagging 5G SA deployment. As the previous analysis showed, investment intensity is a good indicator of network resilience in Europe. This raises the question of how differences in financial realities between Europe and the Gulf affect operators’ capacity to manage peak demand.
To answer this question, we applied the same congestion framework and methodology across both regions in Q1 2026. The results show that the six Gulf markets span a 20-point range — from Qatar (five) to Saudi Arabia (25). Gulf markets record a mean congestion rating of 14.2, half the European average. This performance advantage holds across all five components of the rating, suggesting that the Gulf’s advantage is not limited to a single metric.
Belgium achieved ratings comparable to the U.A.E. and Qatar, as the country has unique work patterns with people commuting into and out of surrounding countries for work each day, reducing the load in the evenings. As mentioned before, median download speeds are higher at peak than off-peak in the U.A.E., and loaded latency and queuing do not degrade, with the only weakness being the 40% P10 speed drop affecting a minority of users. That said, Qatar tops the Gulf region in Q1 2026 by a small margin. Along with Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, these five Gulf countries had lower congestion ratings than 80% of the 29 European markets. Saudi Arabia is better than Finland but worse than Bulgaria. 22 European countries show a higher congestion rating than Saudi Arabia.
Beyond investment disparity, Gulf operators were among the earliest to deploy 5G and upgrade to 5G SA and then 5G Advanced. Their 5G networks are also more compact, with high density in urban areas where most of the population lives. Finally, population-to-tower ratios are more favorable, enabling faster, less costly coverage. By contrast, Ireland, for example, which has a high opex-to-revenue ratio and a rural-skewed geography, suffered from a high congestion rating, the second highest (52) after Spain (62).
Ramadan reshapes the mobile demand across the Gulf but sets different peak usage times
In European markets, the standard evening peak generally occurs between 19:00 and 21:00 local time, with the off-peak period set between 02:00 and 05:00. This standard daily profile also applies to the Gulf for most of the year but needs to be adapted during Ramadan, the fasting month.
Ramadan shifts the rhythm of the day, affecting mobile network demand. Three key periods mark the day that would trigger a usage spike:
- Suhoor: pre-dawn meal and prayer, typically between 4 AM and 5 AM
- Iftar: break of the fast at sunset, around 6:30 PM.
- Tarwih: evening prayers that start after Iftar and conclude by 10 PM.
To assess the degree of change in mobile throughput during Ramadan, we compare the median download speed to a baseline figure over 2-4 AM overnight, when networks are normally ‘dormant’ and less loaded. The following charts show the ratio of two speeds over 24 hours aggregated over one month (18 February to 18 March 2026). Three groups of countries can be identified based on their daily speed ratio trends.
Bahrain and Saudi Arabia track the Iftar time most closely. Peak-to-off-peak median download speed ratio in Saudi Arabia hits nearly 1.5x at 9 AM and reaches 1.4x in Bahrain at 6 AM; they then fall steadily in the evening, reaching their bottom around Iftar time, suggesting a steady increase in traffic on the mobile network. The speeds somewhat recover in the early evening, possibly linked to Tarawih, where fewer active users are expected on the network.
The U.A.E. and Oman show a contrasting trend where the morning, not the evening, is when the network is most constrained, leading to a drop in download speed. As the post-Fajr commute rush begins, the speed ratio falls to 0.5x at 7 AM in the U.A.E., the lowest single hour in the data, and to 0.7x at 8 AM in Oman. Speed recovers in the afternoon in the U.A.E. by 4 PM, with a ratio of 1.3x, then drops again to 0.8x by Iftar time. Performance holds well above the baseline for both countries in the evening.
Kuwait and Qatar sit at opposite ends of the range. Kuwait is the most consistent performer: speeds exceed the baseline in 17 of 24 hours, the morning average reaches 1.3x, and the worst hour is only 0.9x at 21:00, lower than any other market. Qatar looks weaker at first glance, with 20 out of 24 hours below its baseline, with a midday bottom of 0.5x at 13:00. The reality is that Qatar’s overnight throughput (the baseline) is among the highest in the Gulf (a minimum of 522 Mbps during 2-4 AM), so daytime hours rarely reach it.
Climate and consumer behaviour affect peak-to-off-peak download speed ratios throughout the year
To better understand the impact of seasonality, a new analysis was conducted using broader evening and nighttime windows: 6-11 PM (peak time) and 2-5 AM (off-peak time) over ten consecutive seasons (Winter 2024, starting on 1 December, 2023 to Spring 2026 starting on 1 March 2026), and assesses the ratio of evening to early morning download speeds, with lower values indicating a larger evening performance degradation.
Qatar and the U.A.E. stand out as having crossed or closed in on the 1.0 threshold, where evening median download speed matches or exceeds early morning off-peak levels. Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia remain below 0.8, with Winter evening times cutting throughput by 25% to 40% relative to off-peak hours. Bahrain shows the strongest and fastest improvement trend from a low of 0.4 in Fall 2024 (the lowest ratio) to 0.8 in Winter 2026.
Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia post their lowest speed ratios during Winter or Fall. This is explained by the mild temperatures, which draw residents outdoors and bring tourists into the country, as well as post-summer expat returnees. To a lesser extent, Spring and Summer are consistently the ‘strongest’ seasons across the three years, with higher ratios. The heat pushes users indoors, shifting traffic to Wi-Fi, and many expat workers return home for the summer, reducing traffic load on the networks at the hours when they would otherwise be stressed.
That said, Qatar and the U.A.E. are less exposed to the performance swing, and this can be attributed to the over-dimensioning of their networks and 5G SA/Advanced deployment, which introduced efficiencies at high utilization. For example, when more 5G-capable devices are active at peak hours, carrier aggregation and MIMO deployments operate more effectively than when cells are less occupied. The allocation of additional spectrum or the relocation of existing bands (for example, following legacy technology sunset) can also result in a step-change in the speed ratios.
These seasonal trends contrast with those identified in Europe. While many European markets experience network congestion in the summer, driven by a heavy influx of tourists and population shifts toward coastal or rural areas, the Gulf networks face pressures during cooler months.
The multi-dimensional approach adopted in this analysis, which accounts for throughput, latency, jitter, and querying behaviour under peak demand, uncovered interesting insights about network behaviour at different times of the day over multiple quarters and seasons. While individual Gulf nations exhibit varied network load profiles driven by local factors, such as climate shifts and varying usage rhythms during Ramadan, the region as a whole demonstrates superior resilience during peak hours, outperforming most of the European markets. This shows that Gulf networks are not just providing top-line speeds, but also maintain a relatively high level of stability under load.
While maintaining their leadership in peak speeds, Gulf operators should focus more on performance consistency. This should prioritize site densification and indoor coverage to minimize the performance gaps experienced by the bottom decile of users. They should also capture and monitor more granular, peak-hour traffic load to address localized bottlenecks, such as backhaul or capacity-constrained urban cells, and tune buffers or move services closer to users to reduce latency and jitter degradation. The differentiator is no longer just how fast a network can be, but how it copes with pressure.
Please contact us to learn more about how to use Speedtest Intelligence® to assess mobile network performance and resilience under load and how it changes over time.
